Nearly 600,000 jobs disappeared across U.S. sectors in January 2026. Amazon cut 16,000 corporate roles (5% of workforce), Pinterest shed 15%, Dow 13%. All cited AI as the driver.
The problem: most of these firms don't have AI systems mature enough to actually replace the roles they're cutting.
Forrester's January report puts a name to the pattern: "AI-washing" - attributing financially motivated cuts to future AI implementation. A Resume.org survey of 1,000 managers found 59% of firms admit framing layoffs as AI-driven because it plays better with investors than admitting economic pressure or pandemic over-hiring.
The numbers tell the story. AI was cited in 50,000+ U.S. layoffs in 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. But that's just 4.5% of total job losses - economic conditions caused 245,000. A Resume.org survey found 44% of firms blame AI for expected 2026 cuts, yet only 9% say AI has fully replaced workers.
Amazon CEO Andy Jassy initially tied cuts to AI-driven workforce reduction, then shifted to emphasizing bureaucracy reduction. Pinterest reallocated to AI roles. The messaging evolves.
Molly Kinder from Brookings Institute connects the dots: saying "AI did it" is investor-friendly messaging. The alternative - admitting the business is struggling - is not.
History suggests caution. We've covered enough "digital transformation" restructures to recognize the pattern. Forrester forecasts 6% net U.S. job loss (10.4M positions) by 2030 from AI. That's significant. But Oxford Economics notes current AI impacts remain limited despite headlines, pointing to degree oversupply and jobless expansion as bigger factors in graduate unemployment hitting 5.5% in 2025.
Even AI advocates question the direct causation. N. Lee Plumb, an AI lead laid off from Amazon, publicly challenged the link.
The real question for enterprise leaders: when your board asks about AI's workforce impact, are you measuring actual automation gains or crafting a narrative? The difference matters - not just for the people cut, but for the AI investments that follow.